After one of the worst ski seasons on record across much of the West last winter, snow forecasters are delivering some genuinely exciting news for the 2026-2027 season. A climate pattern strong enough to be labeled a “super” El Niño is developing in the Pacific, and according to meteorologists at OpenSnow, it could be among the strongest ever recorded, with the potential to reshape where the best snow falls across North America this winter.
What Makes This El Niño Different
El Niño events are classified by how much warmer than average the sea surface temperatures run in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Anything above 2.0 degrees Celsius qualifies as a super El Niño, the most extreme category on the scale. As of early August, sea surface temperatures in the key monitoring zone were already running 1.8 degrees above average, and some of the leading forecasting models now project temperatures could peak between 3.5 and 4.5 degrees above average by late fall, a level that would set a new record.
NOAA’s own projections now give a 75 to 80 percent chance of a very strong or super El Niño taking hold between October and January, with confidence in that outcome growing steadily over the summer.
Where Skiers Should Be Watching
Historical patterns from past super El Niño winters point to a familiar storm track: a wetter, snowier Southwest paired with a drier, milder northern tier of the country. That translates into a clear list of winners for the coming season.
California and Nevada carry one of the strongest above-normal snowfall signals in the entire forecast, particularly across the Central Sierra, including Mammoth and China Peak. Southern California resorts such as Mountain High and Snow Summit also tend to benefit disproportionately during strong El Niño winters.
Utah is favored for above-average snowfall statewide, with Park City showing one of the strongest historical correlations with big El Niño winters anywhere in the country. Alta, Snowbird, Brighton, Solitude, Snowbasin, and the southern Utah mountains around Brian Head all carry the same above-average signal.
Colorado’s outlook splits by region. The southern mountains, including Telluride, Silverton, Purgatory, and Wolf Creek, along with the eastern resorts near the Continental Divide such as Eldora, Winter Park, and Loveland, are favored for above-average snow. Resorts west of the Divide, including Vail, Aspen, Breckenridge, and Steamboat, show no clear signal in either direction.
New Mexico’s Taos and the Arizona resorts of Snowbowl and Sunrise Park both carry above-average snowfall signals as well, along with southern Oregon destinations including Willamette Pass, Mt. Ashland, and Mt. Bailey, and southwestern Idaho’s Bogus Basin and Sun Valley.
The Catch Behind the Good News
A strong El Niño doesn’t just mean more snow. It also tends to bring warmer temperatures, and that combination creates a real risk that some storms arrive as rain instead of snow, particularly at lower elevations. Forecasters specifically flagged this as a concern for the favored regions in California, Utah, and the Alps, warning that occasional warm atmospheric rivers could bring high snow levels even during an otherwise above-average season.
Timing adds another layer of complexity. Many of the favored Southwest regions aren’t expected to see their strongest snow until January through March, with a slower, less snowy start likely in November and December. Travelers booking early-season trips to these areas may want to temper their expectations accordingly.
The Regions Sitting This One Out
The flip side of an active southern storm track is a quieter one further north. Washington, northern Idaho, northern Montana, British Columbia, and Alberta are all favored for below-normal snowfall this season, largely due to the same warm temperature pattern driving the wetter Southwest. New England, New York, and the Upper Midwest carry a similar below-average signal, with New York City itself being a notable exception, since strong El Niño winters occasionally produce a single large coastal storm capable of pushing the city’s seasonal snowfall total above average even in an otherwise low-snow year.
The Mid-Atlantic tells a similarly split story. Higher elevation resorts in North Carolina and Virginia, including Beech Mountain, Sugar Mountain, and Wintergreen, have equal chances of an above or below-average season, while resorts further west and north in West Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania lean toward below-average snowfall.
What This Means for Planning a Ski Trip
Given last winter’s historically poor snow across much of the West, this outlook offers a welcome reset for travelers eyeing the Sierra, Wasatch, or southern Colorado Rockies. Forecasters caution, though, that seasonal outlooks describe broad tendencies rather than guarantees, and the most reliable way to time an actual trip around good snow remains a short-range forecast taken seven to ten days out, not a projection made months in advance.
This article draws on the 2026-2027 Winter Forecast Preview published by OpenSnow.
Amanda O’Brien is the creator and editor of The Boutique Adventurer. She has visited 80 countries and is a member of the British Guild of Travel Writers as well as the IFTWTA. She is passionate about wine had has just completed Level 3 of the WSET. Born in Australia, she lives in London.